The current polling across Saskatchewan has the Sask. Party winning a majority government.
However, according to Dr. Daniel Westlake, an associate professor of political science at the University of Saskatchewan, there is a lack of polling in the province. He believes that is a significant issue.
“Taking an average of two polls isn’t really much of an average especially in the case of what we’ve got in Saskatchewan,” said Westlake. “The polls we do have are pointing in quite different directions and we have no way of knowing which way is right.”
Since July 25, pollsters have conducted only four polls across the province. The two Insightrix polls show each party winning a narrow victory, depending on the date. In July, the NDP was projected to win by a point. Their September poll projected the Saskatchewan Party winning by a point. The Saskatchewan Party will win if the other two polls come to fruition. The Angus Reid Poll shows them winning by seven points. Meanwhile, the Mainstreet poll has them winning by 10 points.
“It just means that we have a lot of uncertainty because we don’t have a lot of different polls, which means that there isn’t really a way to tell if there are differences in method or just differences in the samples they’re reaching that are affecting their results,” stated Westlake.
He’s concerned that there is no real way to know who’s getting closer to the reality in Saskatchewan. The other problem with lack of polling is knowing what the issues are and how they resonate in each segment of the province.
“We’re a small province. It’s hard to get fine grained, detailed polling data on not only the province as a whole, but a different segment of the population. I haven’t seen a lot to suggest where issues are more popular and not,” stated Westlake.
Some of the limited polling indicates that costs of living, healthcare, and economy management are key issues heading into election season. Those same polls show that voters still prefer the Saskatchewan Party for handling the economy and energy policy. The NDP gets more support on healthcare and education.
Westlake surmised that a teacher’s strike might push more people towards voting for the NDP. Meanwhile, those impacted by a carbon tax in rural areas may be more inclined to vote Sask. Party based on policy.
“In different parts of the province, you’re starting with different numbers of people already predisposed to being supportive of each party,” explained Westlake. ” “There are some kind of fixed characteristics that I think help to explain the difference between rural and urban areas. And there are issues that will change over time, which may affect rural and urban areas differently or may have similar effects across different parts of the province.”
To win a majority government in Saskatchewan, you need 31 legislative seats. Despite limited polling, 338Canada.com currently projects the Saskatchewan Party to win a majority government with between 33 and 46 seats. The two other parties will have no representation as it stands.
The election can be held no later than Oct. 28 according to current legislation.
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