Food prices in Canada continue to rise, with the 2025 Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) forecasting an overall increase of 3 per cent to 5 per cent. The average family of four will spend $16,833.67 on food this year, up to $801.56 more than last year. While food inflation slowed in 2024, affordability remains a pressing concern for Canadians.
“This year marks the 15th edition of Canada’s Food Price Report,” explains Kelleen Wiseman, academic director at the University of British Columbia. “It’s a vital resource that highlights the factors shaping our food systems and impacting food prices.”
Why Are Food Prices Increasing?
Professor Stuart Smyth from the University of Saskatchewan attributes rising costs to several key factors.
“The rise in beef prices is due to lower herd sizes in Canada, less supply means higher prices,” he explains. On the vegetable side, a weakened Canadian dollar is to blame.
“We import so much produce from the southern U.S., and the falling value of the dollar makes it more expensive,” Smyth said.
Global conditions also play a role.
“Unpredictable weather events like droughts and floods reduce crop volumes and raise prices,” Smyth noted.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois from Dalhousie University notes geopolitical impacts, including Donald Trump’s re-election in the U.S.
“His policies may widen the gap in agri-food trading and deepen Canada’s reliance on the U.S.,” Charlebois warned.
Food Insecurity on the Rise
The affordability crisis has left millions struggling. Statistics Canada reported that 22.9 per cent of households in the ten provinces experienced food insecurity in 2023, affecting 8.7 million people, including 2.1 million children. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island saw the highest rates, at 28.9 per cent and 28.6 per cent, respectively.
Food Banks Canada recorded two million visits in 2023, a 90 per cent increase compared to 2019. Younger Canadians are hit hardest, with 40 per cent of Gen Z using savings or borrowing to buy food, compared to just 20 per cent of Boomers.
“Food insecurity has severe health implications,” Wiseman emphasized. “It’s linked to chronic illness, heart disease, and poor oral health.”
Consumer Reactions and New Policies
Canadians are responding to soaring costs. In May 2024, a consumer boycott of Loblaws aimed to protest corporate grocery greed.
The Grocery Code of Conduct, introduced in 2024, aims to boost competition and give smaller grocers a stronger voice. Major players like Loblaws and Sobeys have signed on. “Oversight will be critical to its success,” notes Evan Fraser, director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph.
Fraser believes Canada is making strides toward resilience.
“The findings of this report show a gradual slowing of inflation and reflect Canada’s efforts to increase resilience in the face of cascading crises,” he said.
A Snapshot of 2025’s Food Prices
The CFPR 2025 forecasts category-specific increases:
| Category | Expected Increase |
|---|---|
| Bakery | 2% – 4% |
| Dairy | 2% – 4% |
| Fruits | 1% – 3% |
| Meat | 4% – 6% |
| Restaurants | 3% – 5% |
| Seafood | 1% – 3% |
| Vegetables | 3% – 5% |
| Other | 2% – 4% |
Despite some stabilization, affordability remains a challenge, especially in Canada’s North. The CFPR omits projections for Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, where data gaps persist.
“These regions face the most severe food affordability challenges in the country,” Smyth acknowledged.
The Road Ahead
Looking forward, Smyth predicts food price increases will normalize to 3 per cent to 5 per cent, barring significant global disruptions. However, he warns that tariffs or trade conflicts could send prices soaring.
Canadians continue to adapt, from buying in bulk to relying on loyalty programs. As Wiseman puts it, “With affordability being a top concern, the CFPR enables more informed decision-making in an era of economic and environmental challenges.”
For now, the report urges policymakers, producers, and consumers to work together in tackling Canada’s growing food affordability crisis.
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